North Carolina’s economic forecast: a comeback in 2021

September 23, 2020
Categories: Research Tags: Belk College of Business, COVID-19, Research

The new year could bring a resurgence for North Carolina’s economy, which took a historic hit this spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to John Connaughton, director of the Barings/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast.

“While 2021 represents the first full year of the economic comeback from the COVID-19 recession, it is likely to take until early 2022 before GDP (Gross Domestic Product) reaches the 2019 quarter four high point,” said Connaughton, Barings Professor of Financial Economics at the Belk College of Business. “Unfortunately, the unemployment rate will take another six to nine months before it again approaches 4.0%.”

Connaughton – presenting his quarterly Barings/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast on Wednesday, Sept. 23 – said 13 of 15 economic sectors in North Carolina are forecast to experience output decreases in 2020.

Hospitality and Leisure Services will see the largest decline, a projected real decrease of 32.8%, followed by:

  • Other Services: 7.4% decrease
  • Educational and Health Services: 5.9% decrease
  • Wholesale Trade: 4.7% decrease

Looking ahead to 2021